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When Ultimate Texas Hold ‘Em was first introduced, the game was only available on multiplayer electronic machines. Since that time, its popularity has exploded and it has been expanded into a live table game which is the most common variety played in casinos today.
I guess my questions are
1) Approximately how long do you have to play quarters to generate $1250 in action. Just looking for a ball park number as I realize the dealer and the number of players at the table greatly effect the pace of play.
2) On bigger mistakes like when you bet 4x and lose and the dealer misreads and pays you and you win $125 instead of losing $150 doesn't this $275 swing destroy the house 2% edge.
Seems to me the game is beatable because of the high volume of dealer mistakes that take place. Anyone else have any thoughts on this.
Grandpa Vegas
I bet quarters and play the perfect strategy as the strategy tables show. I never play trips and bet 4x 2x and 1x where appropriate. What should this equate to in money bet per hour? I am making the assumption that for every $1250 I put in action I can only expect a return of $1225 after the fullness of time and the 2% hold levels out. Many times the dealer forgets they didn't qualify and you get paid on your ante bet. Well if you get paid on the ante when it should have been a push, doesn't that one little mistake make up the 2% for $1250 worth of action.
I guess my questions are
1) Approximately how long do you have to play quarters to generate $1250 in action. Just looking for a ball park number as I realize the dealer and the number of players at the table greatly effect the pace of play.
2) On bigger mistakes like when you bet 4x and lose and the dealer misreads and pays you and you win $125 instead of losing $150 doesn't this $275 swing destroy the house 2% edge.
Seems to me the game is beatable because of the high volume of dealer mistakes that take place. Anyone else have any thoughts on this.
Grandpa Vegas
I have no idea what you mean by 'hold'. The house edge is a lot lower than 2%, and it's based on the percentage of ante bets, not total action, so it is easier to calculate.
Dealer mistakes are common, you are right. If they pay the ante instead of pushing it 1-2x per hour you are breaking even or beating the game, before comps. If you have a dealer who can't read the board (which was common when the game first became popular -- a lot of non-poker-player dealers were clueless) it can be a goldmine.
2) On bigger mistakes like when you bet 4x and lose and the dealer misreads and pays you and you win $125 instead of losing $150 doesn't this $275 swing destroy the house 2% edge.
You can answer that question with the Wizard's numbers from the website. Dump them into a spreadsheet and for every line item you care about, change the average value to account for dealer mistakes. The new value will reflect the house edge under the assumed conditions (including your optimal play and dealer mistakes). If it's positive, well...
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I bet quarters and play the perfect strategy as the strategy tables show. I never play trips and bet 4x 2x and 1x where appropriate. What should this equate to in money bet per hour? I am making the assumption that for every $1250 I put in action I can only expect a return of $1225 after the fullness of time and the 2% hold levels out. Many times the dealer forgets they didn't qualify and you get paid on your ante bet. Well if you get paid on the ante when it should have been a push, doesn't that one little mistake make up the 2% for $1250 worth of action.
I guess my questions are
1) Approximately how long do you have to play quarters to generate $1250 in action. Just looking for a ball park number as I realize the dealer and the number of players at the table greatly effect the pace of play.
2) On bigger mistakes like when you bet 4x and lose and the dealer misreads and pays you and you win $125 instead of losing $150 doesn't this $275 swing destroy the house 2% edge.
Seems to me the game is beatable because of the high volume of dealer mistakes that take place. Anyone else have any thoughts on this.
Grandpa Vegas
FWIW, Harrah's LV is extremely concerned about exactly this and watching their hold carefully. With the addition of the in-house cross-platform 6 card bet, the dealer errors have become endemic, the game has slowed badly, and the only thing saving the game is that most people are scared to bet it properly and cut themselves out of taking full advantage. It's possible they'll work through it, but 3 weeks ago they were having a cow. (Don't think I'm giving anything away; they were openly discusssing the situation in front of the table several times over the week I was playing.)
I have no idea what you mean by 'hold'. The house edge is a lot lower than 2%, and it's based on the percentage of ante bets, not total action, so it is easier to calculate.
The hold is the amount a player leaves behind on average for a game. For a game like blackjack or texas hold 'em where people can not know the strategy the hold can be a lot larger than the edge.
The hold is the amount a player leaves behind on average for a game. For a game like blackjack or texas hold 'em where people can not know the strategy the hold can be a lot larger than the edge.
I know what hold means :) But I don't think that's what he meant by the term in this context.
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The House advantage is 2.2% upon the average wager. The Wizard has calculated that optimal strategy will wager about 4.15 units per hand. This equates to about 0.53% per unit wagered (Element of Risk).
Oh, I guess I was wrong. For some reason I thought that the HE was 1.4%. Not sure where I got that number from.
EoR is not a useful measure here. Just multiply HE by your average ante size, and multiply that by number of hands per hour.
For example, lets assume that the Wiz's calculations for the game considered approximately 250,000 hands. On average, I play for about an hour during any given session. I estimate that I see between 20-30 hands per hour, 2 to 3 minutes per hand. So at 20 hands per hour it would take approximately 12,500 hours of play to reach the expected house edge. That breaks down to 520 days of 24hr a day play, almost 1 1/2 years of continuous play. Even if we estimated 30 hands per hour that would be 8,333 hours of play or almost one year of 24 hour continuous play. So for me, if I play 7 days a week an hour a day it would still take me 34 years before I play 250,000 hands. Maybe the Wiz's calculations don't assume 250,000, but my point is it would take myself almost a lifetime to see the expected house edge.
What really got me thinking about this was my play over the weekend. We went out with friends to play at the M on Friday night. I sat down with a $100 buy-in. Played 5 hands, perfect strategy was used, and busted out. On Sunday, we went to Mesquite after going to the Clark County fair. I played for 1 hour, $100 buy-in, within the hour I hit a straight, a three of kind, four full houses, and a four of a kind.
I will likely always use the Wiz's strategy when playing any game, but after seeing how long it will take me to realize the expected house edge I may be much more willing to try games I wouldn't usually play because really anything could happen in the short amount of time I am actually playing.
All games of chance work essentially the same way. You personally will never reach 'the long term', but you can be sure your results will be skewed in the house's favour the more you play.
I've had nasty streaks at UTH. Playing at Wynn, I busted out of $400 in 25 minutes playing $10 a hand (no Trips). Then I went through another $400 at Orleans playing $5 a hand with $5 trips. That was bad. But I've hit a straight flush, too ($900 payout), and have had sessions where it seemed like I couldn't lose a hand.
I will likely always use the Wiz's strategy when playing any game, but after seeing how long it will take me to realize the expected house edge I may be much more willing to try games I wouldn't usually play because really anything could happen in the short amount of time I am actually playing.
There are definitely some who argue that the casual gamble playing rarely should just go out and have fun, paying no attention to low HE or proper strategy. What is the name of the TV program that has one gambling expert of some kind bet another that it doesn't matter for such as the short period they were going to act it out for the camera? One just plays all the sucker bets and the other goes for the low HE games only. I think the former wins against the latter or at least firmly makes his point. IIRC the Wizard is in that production early on, but isn't one of the two experts playing this out. [edits]
For the gambler who plays more and also always does it against a HE, you have to agree with the Wizard that low HE is the only thing an intelligent gambler can consider as playable, and that careful consideration of comps is also in order.
From the way you talk, sounds like you are in the latter category. To date, I am something in between these types. UTH is definitely on my radar now, still havent played though.
For the gambler who plays more and also always does it against a HE, you have to agree with the Wizard that low HE is the only thing an intelligent gambler can consider as playable, and that careful consideration of comps is also in order.
From the way you talk, sounds like you are in the latter category. To date, I am something in between these types. UTH is definitely on my radar now, still havent played though.
From the way you talk, sounds like you are in the latter category. To date, I am something in between these types. UTH is definitely on my radar now, still havent played though.
For the most part, I will always consider the house edge and comps when playing and have previously refused to play side bets or certain games because of the high house edge. I also refused to play games that the Wiz or some other reliable source didn't have a perfect analysis of the game from which to base my play. I guess my point in drafting the original post was to somewhat argue against that theory simply because for the average player, assuming average means playing 3 to 4x per week, will never realize the expected house edge for a given game because the average player doesn't play enough. Another example is the house edge for blackjack, assuming the less than 1% house calculated at 250,000 hands and an average 50 hands per hour, which would still mean you need to play 1hr per day 7 days a week for 13 1/2 years.
Therefore, I may be willing to play the extra $5 on a side bet even if the house edge is 5%. Unless you are a professional or someone with a lot of time to spend at the casino on a daily basis I would argue that 95% of all gamblers are short term gamblers. Don't get me wrong, I am not going to start playing Big 6 or Keno, but I may not be so willing to argue against a side bet from here forward.
assuming average means playing 3 to 4x per week
actually that seems like a lot to me
I may not be so willing to argue against a side bet from here forward.
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when it is just a dollar or two I have been known to do it. Considering that in his craps video the Wizard still touts the HE difference that the dark side offers, I think we have to realize he will never give his stamp of approval on this [g]Even one mispay (happens more often than you think) will wipe out a few hours' expected loss. Like Stephen says, it is exceptionally cheap gambling.
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I strongly suspect staying on your toes pays off. If the first cards do not suggest a flush or straight, yet it develops and you must use community+hole cards [edit], I have always noticed newbies - and me if I get rusty or tired - will easily miss it. Player advantage